Knoxville Nationals 2025: A Different Look

If you missed it, I already released my annual Knoxville Nationals full-field predictions where I predict which “main” every driver entered into the race will end up finishing in on Saturday. While I put most of my efforts into that massive preview, I still think it’s not enough to tell the full story about the field in this year’s Nationals. Here, I’ll dive deeper into some names and why I think they could perform well (despite where I ranked them).

I want to start off with some favorites, and not the ones named Kyle Larson, Rico Abreu and David Gravel. I think those are the obvious names, so I want to look at who else in the field could have potential to be a top 5 car on Saturday night.

The “Other” Favorites

Ryan Timms – If you have watched any weekly racing at Knoxville this year, you know that Ryan Timms is arguably the fastest car in the field. The statistics help tell the story, as Timms has timed within the top 5 of over half of his starts at Knoxville this year. He has 4 wins, battled for a few others, and an average finish of 9.2 at Eldora and Knoxville this year. 

It seems like forever ago when everyone was talking about Ryan Timms becoming the next great thing in sprint car racing. It’s easy to forget how young he was when he started winning races in a 410, and I think his full potential is finally on display. There were always some questions about his ability to put together a complete night and keep the car clean, but Timms has just one DNF at Knoxville this season. 

While I think it will be a nearly impossible task to beat both the 57 and the 24, the Liebig Motorsports no. 10 could have an outside chance. 50 laps is a very long race, but Timms is up for the challenge.

Gio Scelzi – Do I really think that Gio Scelzi could put a car that he has only driven one time into Knoxville Nationals victory lane? Yes, but it’s definitely a longshot. Scelzi has been so good at Knoxville over his career, where he has 6 career Knoxville Nationals A-Main appearances with an average finish of 9.3. That average finish comes down to 6.8 if you take away his one DNF.

Having 6 Knoxville Nationals A Main starts under your belt before age 24 is insane. I would have concerns with almost any other driver switching teams right before nationals, but not Scelzi. The Clauson Marshall 7BC is on rails at Knoxville, and the new pairing looked very good at the Capitani. 

Gio finished 2nd last year and was incredibly emotional about coming up one spot short. Add in a little extra fire under his seat with him driving for a new ride next year, and you have a potent combination for the 2025 nationals. 

Austin McCarl – Much like Ryan Timms, Austin McCarl is having an amazing year at the Knoxville Raceway. He hasn’t put the Country Builders no. 88 in victory lane a bunch, but he has the best average finish (5.4) of any Knoxville competitor this season. When you combine that average finish with his consistency in qualifying (4.4 avg result), you have a perfect recipe for Knoxville success. 

McCarl has more laps at Knoxville than 90% of the field, and has been a Nationals pole sitter in the past. I think 2024 was a down year for McCarl, but he has really come back strong and the team has really locked in at Knoxville this season. 

Look for McCarl to come out of the gates on his prelim night and time in the top 10. He’ll follow that up with a solid heat race performance which should give him a chance to earn enough points to be toward the top of the leaderboard. 

Noteables: Carson Macedo, Brian Brown, Anthony Macri

Longshots to Make the A Main?

Sam Hafertepe Jr – It’s hard to consider Hafertepe a “longshot” but he hasn’t run many 410 races the last two seasons. He’s been dominant in the 360 scene, but he has really put together some strong performances in his limited 410 starts this season. He looked solid at the Capitani before spinning out in front of the field in the B Main.

Hafertepe has a ton of laps around Knoxville and is usually a good qualifier. If he can find some luck in the pill draw, he will surely be near the top of the charts. I think people will overlook him because of his struggles at the 360 Nationals and because of his lack of 410 starts recently. One lap can change everything for you at Knoxville, and Sam is capable of laying down that lap.

Carson McCarl – If you watch weekly racing at Knoxville, McCarl isn’t a longshot to make the A-Main this year. In fact, the data says that he will make the A-Main this year. McCarl has been able to time extremely well this year, posting an average result of 10.5 over 14 races. More importantly, he’s timing well at the right time. In his last 4 starts, he has an average time trial result of 6.7. 

Timing well is just one part of the Knoxville Nationals success formula. You also need to be able to pass a few cars in your heat race and feature. McCarl has been able to do that this year as well, as he has advanced positions in every A Main at Knoxville this year with the exception of 3. When you look at the data and when you watch the no. 27 race around Knoxville, it’s evident that McCarl could lock in this year.

Ashton Torgerson – Torgerson has 0 laps around Knoxville. He also had 0 laps around Eldora before going quicktime with the Outlaws earlier in the season and then qualifying for the King’s Royal. Torgerson ultimately finished top 10 in the King’s Royal, adding to his impressive and surprising season behind the wheel of the Shark Racing 1A.

Knoxville is an entirely different animal, though. You see it time and time again. Winning drivers who show up at Knoxville for the first time and get their teeth kicked in. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see Torgerson struggle this year, but I think he has all of the right tools in place to have some success.

Jacob Allen has consistently been good at Knoxville. He’s won a Nationals prelim before and he made the show last season. He’s a great person to have in your corner come Nationals time. There will be no doubt that the 1A will be fast, but can Torgerson get comfortable enough to make gains this week?

Sleepers/Surprises

Sleepers just are not a thing at the Knoxville Nationals. When I pick “sleepers,” I usually am picking guys who might not be expected to run well and end up making the B Main. When you look at the last 5 Knoxville Nationals A Mains, who can really be considered a sleeper?

Tasker Phillips in 2022? Davey Heskin in 2023? While those guys making the A was certainly a surprise, they were both locals with a ton of laps at Knoxville. There usually is one Knoxville regular who makes the show that might be a surprise. This year I chose JJ Hickle, but it could easily be Kaleb Johnson or Carson McCarl.

Brenham Crouch – Crouch has struggled the last two seasons with High Limit. However, it’s not all bad when you look at what he has done at Knoxville. His transition to CJB Motorsports has definitely been beneficial, but I think people are expecting better results to start happening soon.

Crouch has an average finish of 19.6 at Eldora and Knoxville this year, and while that might not sound very good, it’s a lot more consistent than some of the top drivers in the sport. Additionally, Crouch’s average finish comes down to 16.2 in 4 starts at Knoxville, where he has an average qualifying result of 14. Again, those numbers don’t exactly light the world on fire, but are consistent enough to where Crouch could get himself comfortably into the B Main. 

Chris Martin – Chris Martin just keeps getting better and better each year he races at Knoxville. He has been a man of consistency in both time trials and feature races. Martin has an average finish of 16.3 at Knoxville this year through 15 races. That’s really good when you look at how many drivers are behind him in that category.

Martin has really improved his qualifying efforts this year, where he has an average result inside the top 15 and a best of 4th. Like many others in the field, if Martin can benefit from a good pill draw, he could time well enough to catch the perfect spot in the invert. We saw this happen at the Capitani Classic and it could happen again during Nationals. He should be one to keep an eye on during his prelim night. 

Kevin Thomas Jr – KTJ had a solid performance during the Capitani Classic and it definitely caught my eye. The Heidbreder Motorsports no. 19 has been fast at Knoxville the last two years in limited starts, and KTJ actually has one prelim A Main start under his belt. It hasn’t been great in his 5 Knoxville starts in the winged car this year, but I think this combination has what it takes to be pretty quick in qualifying if they go out early. 

Deep Dives

Thomas Meseraull – T-Mez will be behind the wheel of the BDS Motorsports no.1 car for the 410 Nationals this year. He doesn’t have a ton of laps around Knoxville in a winged 410, but he has made the A Main in both attempts this year. The BDS car is a really good car for Knoxville, and we have seen it be fast with Tasker Phillips behind the wheel. T-Mez could certainly put together a nice run this week. 

Justin Whittall – Whittall is one of the best cars at Port Royal any time there is a winged 410 race. He will be a Knoxville Nationals rookie, and one of the favorites to win the award. Not only is he a nationals rookie, this will also be just his second time racing at the Knoxville Raceway. His first start was at the Capitani Classic, where he put up a respectable run for his first ever laps at the track. I think his experience at Port Royal will help him, and maybe with some luck, he could be a big surprise this week.

Cam Martin – The younger Martin brother has been surprisingly good in both the 360 and 410 at Knoxville this year. He has improved his qualifying efforts, where he has results of 7, 14, and 15 this season. It hasn’t been as good in the feature, but Martin has an opportunity to have a good prelim night if he can time well.