Knoxville Nationals: Wednesday Predictions & the Dingus Drunk’s Final Tiers

Steve Thornton,

It’s finally here. The 2023 Knoxville Nationals are upon us and it all starts with Wednesday night. The seeds have been polished and the Dingus Drunk has released his final set of tiers. All is right in the sprint car world. Wednesday night’s field is stacked, but not anymore stacked than Thursday night. Of course, we couldn’t begin the Knoxville Nationals without some silly season news, as Cody Maroske announced that he has left the Running Boxer Farm no. 101 team just hours before the racing action begins. Just hours later, Shark Racing announced that Chase Dietz would be piloting the no. 1A machine for Jacob Allen. Allen announced earlier that he would be taking some time off but we did see him back in action at I-55 last week. The Dietz news came as a surprise but I think he could perform pretty well, as he has big track experience.

I wrote down a list of 30 drivers that I felt had at least a small chance to lock in to the Knoxville Nationals. Per the format, the top 16 drivers in combined points from Wednesday and Thursday lock into the A Main. In fairness, I picked out eight drivers from Wednesday night that I think have the best chance to lock in.

Top 8 After Wednesday Night

1. David Gravel5. Kerry Madsen
2. Aaron Reutzel6. Justin Peck
3. James McFadden7. Donny Schatz
4. Gio Scelzi8. Brent Marks
It was hard to bet against David Gravel. He is a past champion and he has all the tools to be the high point man after tonight. He times well and he always runs well in the Knoxville A Mains. Aaron Reutzel has been so good at Knoxville this year that I think he comes out and puts it on the podium in the feature. James McFadden and Roth Motorsports are very fast right now and McFadden has had plenty of Knoxville success. Gio Scelzi and Kerry Madsen know their way around Knoxville. Donny Schatz doesn’t need an explanation. Justin Peck and Brent Marks always show up for the Crown Jewels.

If those are the eight guys that lock in, that leaves some very heavy hitters on the outside looking in. Lynton Jeffrey, Davey Heskin, Chase Randall, Parker Price-Miller, Corey Day, Sheldon Haudenschild, Zeb Wise, Cole Macedo, Brady Bacon, Justin Sanders, Hunter Schuerenberg and Tim Shaffer are all competing on Wednesday. It wouldn’t shock me if any of those drivers found themselves inside the top eight after night one.

Wednesday’s Top 8 “Sleepers”

1. Kyle Reinhardt5. Sye Lynch
2. Scott Bogucki6. Mark Dobmeier
3. Justin Henderson7. Jamie Ball
4. Tasker Phillips8. Chase Dietz
On a normal night, most of these guys would never be considered sleepers. They all have proven themselves behind the wheel of a sprint car. I have been very high on both Bogucki and Henderson this week and I give them both a decent shot to lock into Saturday’s A Main. Tasker Phillips shocked the world last year and locked himself into the A Main after Wednesday and Thursday were complete. Theres no reason he can’t do so again. Mark Dobmeier has been one of the hottest 410 drivers in the country, but flies a bit under the radar during the big events. Kyle Reinhardt and Sye Lynch can both time really well at the big tracks, which would set themselves up nicely for a decent points night. Chase Dietz is behind the wheel of a fast Shark Racing car, making him a true wild card for night one. Jamie Ball has a ton of Knoxville experience and has looked pretty good during his limited action behind the wheel of a 410.

Wednesday’s Top 8 of Drivers I Didn’t Mention Above

1. McKenna Haase5. Robbie Price
2. Brenham Crouch6. Kasey Kahne
3. Blake Hahn7. Brandon Wimmer
4. JJ Hickle8. Matt Covington
All of these drivers have an outside chance of locking into the A Main. With a little luck, they could all surprise us. McKenna Haase turned a lot of heads last year at the Knoxville Nationals, as she found herself in the B Main on Saturday. JJ Hickle was able to make the feature, but a new ride this year will make that more difficult. Brenham Crouch has been impressive in his rookie year and showed good speed during the 360 Nationals. Blake Hahn had one of his best finishes of the year at the Osky Challenge on Monday and could carry that momentum into Knoxville. Robbie Price and Kasey Kahne have had some disappointing runs with the Outlaws this year, but they have both had bright spots as well. Brandon Wimmer ran well at Nationals last year and can do so again. Matt Covington doesn’t get behind the wheel of a 410 often, but had a solid run at Osky on Monday.

Critiquing the Dingus Drunk’s Tiers 1, 2 & 3

The Dingus Drunk has given us his final three tiers just in time for Wednesday’s action. He gives Donny Schatz, David Gravel, Logan Schuchart, Rico Abreu and Brian Brown as the favorites to win the Knoxville Nationals. While I have all of those drivers as one or two seeds, I can’t believe he didn’t include Kyle Larson in tier 1! Larson does lack the big track experience this year but let’s be real, he’s the best sprint car driver in the country right now and he is a previous winner of the event.

While putting Larson in tier two seems like a crime, he is joined by Brad Sweet and Carson Macedo. Sweet is another past winner who gets around Knoxville very well, but I do agree with the placement, as the no. 49 has not always been on top of their game this year. As for Carson Macedo, I think he is one of my favorites to win the whole thing. I placed him as a two seed but we know the JJR no. 41 can win the Knoxville Nationals. He should be a tier 1 driver!

I can’t argue with the placement of the remaining drivers in tier two, as it matches up pretty closely with what I have. I can argue with Davey Heskin and Garet Williamson being in tier 3 though. His Knoxville bias is really showing here. Heskin is definitely a top Knoxville regular, but I think he is more of a tier 4 guy when it comes to his performances against the Outlaws and other stout competition. Williamson parted ways with the no. 24 team on Sunday and I just don’t see him finding a ride of that caliber in time for his prelim night. If he does, I think Williamson is on the edge of tier 3 but more likely a tier 4 guy.

Other than that, I think the Dingus Drunk did a pretty damn good job with the tiers this year. It’s a fun way to get fan engagement and even some driver engagement. I’ll be monitoring my seeds and the tiers to see who will be the most accurate. But for now, TRUST THE TIERS.

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